The price is one opinion. Here's the evidence.
Fairline researches Polymarket and Kalshi questions without looking at the price, then shows you where the evidence and the market disagree. Every source is listed, every call is timestamped, and the score is public.
The disagreement map
Every market, against the evidence.
Each dot is a market. Across is the price; up is Fairline's fair value. On the diagonal, the research agrees with the market. The further a dot sits from it, the bigger the disagreement, and the more it's worth a closer look.
Illustration with sample markets. The live map is in the app.
How a call is made
Researched blind, then measured against the market.
Markets know a lot, so Fairline doesn't try to replace them. It forms its own view first, without seeing the price, and then shows you exactly how far apart the two are.
Read the exact rules
The model gets the question, the venue's full resolution criteria and today's date. Most bad calls come from misreading what actually settles a market.
Research without the price
It starts from a base rate and reads recent reporting. Prediction-market and odds sites are blocked, so the price can't leak into the research.
Form an independent estimate
A probability, a confidence level, the key factors and what would change the view, all written before the market price is shown.
Blend with the market
The independent estimate is pooled with the live price into a fair value. Both numbers stay visible, so you can see which way the evidence pulls.
Lock it on the record
The call is stored with the price at that second and can't be edited. It's refreshed when the market moves or as the close gets near.
Will the incumbent win the mayoral race?
Cross-venue prices
Same question. Two prices.
Many questions trade on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Fairline pairs them, has a person confirm each pair settles on the same event, and shows both books side by side.
- Bid and ask on each venue, not just the last trade.
- The difference after spreads: what's left once you cross both books, before fees.
- Free for everyone, refreshed every 10 minutes.
Will the Fed cut rates at the December meeting?
Confirmed same question · illustration
Polymarket 47%
Kalshi 52%
Track record
Scored in public, misses included.
A fair value is only worth something if it holds up. Each call goes on a ledger the moment it's made, and when the market resolves it's scored next to the market's own price.
Example entry. The live record, with every resolved call, is on the track record page.
Pricing
Free a day later. Live with Pro.
Everything Fairline publishes opens to everyone 24 hours after it's made. Pro gets it the moment a market is researched.
For following along.
- Fair values and research, 24 hours after they're made
- Cross-venue prices, live
- The full track record
- The weekly disagreement report
For trading on it. Cancel anytime.
- Live fair values, as soon as each market is researched
- The full case, key factors and every source, immediately
- Every refresh when a price moves or the close gets near
- Resolution watch for markets in UMA dispute
Weekly report
The week's biggest disagreements, in your inbox.
Where the evidence and the market split the most, and how the record stands. One email, Mondays.
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The mark
The line is the market. The dot is where the evidence lands.
That's the whole product in one shape: the price everyone sees, and how far the research says it should move.